FLU VACCINE: SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Early this year, U.S. health authorities at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and FDA anticipated that Americans would need approximately 100 million doses of flu vaccine for the 2004-05 flu season.

Demand for vaccine supplies was high. In July, the CDC maintained:

"Influenza vaccine manufacturers project that approximately 90–100 million total doses of influenza vaccine will be available for distribution during the 2004–05 season in the United States. These influenza vaccine projections are preliminary and could change as the season progresses. CDC has contracted to purchase up to 8 million doses of influenza vaccine for use in the public sector, including up to 3 million doses of preservative-free vaccine for children. Morbidity and Mortalirty Weekly Report, July 2, 2004

On October 5, 2004, however, British health officials suspended California-based flu vaccine manufacturer Chiron Corp.'s license to produce its Fluvirin^® vaccine, suspending the company's Liverpool manufacturing facility’s license for three (3) months. According to the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency ('MHRA'), the action was taken due to “Chiron’s failure to comply with the requirements of Good Manufacturing Practice, leading to concerns of possible microbial contamination” of the vaccine.

Chiron had been expected to produce some 46 - 50 million flu shots for U.S. consumption prior to onslaught of the 2004-05 influenza season. Revocation of the license meant that no license could be produced for distribution in any country. The company was prohibited from releasing flu vaccine manufactured at their Liverpool plant “to any market.”

Suddenly, half of the U.S. expected supply of flu shots was gone.